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Issue No 151
The Asia Pacific Banking Industry Outlook 2018
How will the industry fare as global and regional economic conditions improve? How long will it last? What key risks and challenges lie ahead?
Overall, global macro-conditions are generally positive and we are seeing quite an unprecedented phase of synchronised growth across the major continents. So favourable are conditions that some economists are characterising them as “Goldilocks” – just right. Just as in the popular bedtime story, there is a moral and sinister side to it. The cosy conditions do not last long before the “bears” return. With the confluence of positive factors will markets be lulled into a state of “excessive exuberance” that numbs the dangers of the current pace of asset appreciation and accumulation of financial leverage, or should this instead be a time to look out for the returning bears?
Overall, global macro-conditions are generally positive and we are seeing quite an unprecedented phase of synchronised growth across the major continents. So favourable are conditions that some economists are characterising them as “Goldilocks” – just right. Just as in the popular bedtime story, there is a moral and sinister side to it. The cosy conditions do not last long before the “bears” return. With the confluence of positive factors will markets be lulled into a state of “excessive exuberance” that numbs the dangers of the current pace of asset appreciation and accumulation of financial leverage, or should this instead be a time to look out for the returning bears?
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