Asia Pacific banking industry outlook 2013
Regional economies are generally sound, with good long term prospects. While Asian banks grapple with new capital rules in the short term, they are likely to withstand long term stress to their operations. February 19, 2013 | Manu BhaskaranThe Asia Pacific economies approached 2013 with fairly strong fundamentals in place. Supply side growth drivers remain strong, macro-economic policy is largely sound, intra-regional integration efforts are producing positive results and there are few political risks significant enough to threaten economic performance. Economic activity in 2013 and beyond will be driven by a number of factors: 1. A weaker global economy will be a risk. As a whole, the region remains highly integrated into the global economy and thus still substantially influenced by overall global demand for the region’s exports, commodity prices, flows of portfolio capital, foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism. Fortunately, economic resilience has improved within the region, allowing it to absorb potential stresses emanating from the global economy. 2. Structural drivers of growth appear to be promising, providing the region with impetus that continues to make it attractive to foreign investment. This strong supply side is the product of a number of factors, including demographic advantages, urbanisation, strong competitiveness in exports, high investment rates and the rising synergies from regional integration. More headwinds expected in global demand The three large developed economies of the Eurozone, the US and Japan are not likely to be helpful to Asian economies in 2013, with the possible exception of the US later in the year. The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is likely to continue. While the risk of extreme scenarios such as the default of a large economy has been reduced through aggressive policy measures, fiscal austerity will continue to depress demand. Moreover, there is still a risk that yet another year of cuts to state benefits, high unemployment and falling living standards could crystallise political stresses that will compound the crisis. The US is in better shape, but economic growth in the first half of... Please login to read the complete article. If you already have an account, you can login now or subscribe/register.
Categories: Capital & Strategic Issues, China, Indonesia, Japan, Risk and Regulation, Rmb, ThailandCapital & Strategic Issues,China,Indonesia,Japan,Risk and Regulation,Rmb,Thailand, Capital & Strategic Issues,China,Indonesia,Japan,Risk and Regulation,Rmb,Thailand, Keywords:BOJ, Federal Reserve, ASEAN, Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Shadow Banking, NPL BOJ, Federal Reserve, ASEAN, Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Shadow Banking, NPL
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