Thailand’s economy is solid enough to handle an interest-rate increase and expectations of tightening this quarter are already partially reflected in the strength of the baht, according to the central bank.
A quarter-point hike, or even a climb of 50 basis points, would have “some, but not much” impact on consumer and corporate borrowing, Bank of Thailand Senior Director Don Nakornthab said in an interview in Bangkok. Don heads the economic and policy department at the monetary authority.
Don said the central bank has sought to reassure investors on the pace of tightening, noting that Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob has indicated the cycle won’t retrace the once-a-meeting increases of the past.
“It could be one hike and then stop for half a year or even a year,” said Don.
The central bank remains “data-dependent” and independent, and Thai elections scheduled for early 2019 are unlikely by themselves to convince officials to stay on hold, Don said. The recent upward track of the baht won’t complicate an interest-rate rise since the currency is unlikely to get much stronger, given the appreciation in the dollar, he added.
The Bank of Thailand’s benchmark rate has remained at 1.5 percent since 2015, making the country a Southeast Asian outlier following aggressive tightening by neighbors such as the Philippines and Indonesia this year.
Thai officials have pointed to benign inflation and the need to nurture growth for the stability in borrowing costs. But they’ve also laid the ground for the first rate hike since 2011, partly to build policy space and to damp potential financial risks, such as riskier mortgage lending.
As of Oct. 10, three of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg survey see a hike for the November Bank of Thailand decision. The tally climbs to six of nine for the December gathering.
The baht has appreciated about 1.6 percent against the dollar in the past three months, shrugging off the turmoil elsewhere in emerging markets. The currency climbed as much as 0.6 percent to the strongest level in about a week.
Exports of goods and services are equivalent to about two-thirds of the economy, making the currency a sensitive factor for the economic outlook.
When Don spoke with Bloomberg, he predicted that second-quarter economic expansion of 4.5 percent or greater would swing the monetary policy committee toward tightening. The nation actually expanded 4.6 percent during the period, surprising some economists.
But the committee voted 5-2 to leave the key rate on hold last month, with the two dissenters seeking a move to 1.75 percent.
“I thought it would convince more” of the panel, said Don, referring to the growth print. “But they probably want to see more” data to confirm momentum in the economy, including September export figures, before boosting borrowing costs, he said.
Re-disseminated by The Asian Banker from Bloomberg.com