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Asia Pacific Banking Industry Outlook

We periodically publish industry outlook by country and by business segments for the region. We cover significant changes in the banking industry and our research analysts provide projections as well.

This document contains the following contents:


1. Australia 7. Indonesia 13. Philippines
2. Bangladesh 8. Japan 14. Singapore
3. Brunei 9. Korea 15. Sri lanka
4. China 10. Malaysia 16. Taiwan
5. Hong Kong 11. New Zealand 17. Thailand
6. India 12. Pakistan 18. Vietnam

Market Topic Content Date of publication Format
Australia Country Outlook Sector expected to perform relatively well amid weakness in mortgage lending Mar 31, 2016
Bangladesh Country Outlook Sector faces challenges of undercapitalisation and weakened demand for loans Mar 31, 2016
Brunei Country Outlook Amid regulatory reform, the sector is looking to increasing opportunity in Islamic finance for growth Mar 31, 2016
China Country Outlook The slowing down of China’s real economy has added credit risk exposure to the sector Mar 31, 2016
Hong Kong Country Outlook Sector will be impacted by further fluctuations in economic conditions and exchange rate turbulence in global financial markets Mar 31, 2016
India Country Outlook Sector faces substantial asset deterioration despite improvements in the economy and banking industry reform Mar 31, 2016
Indonesia Country Outlook Sector is expected to leverage off higher government led infrastructure spending Mar 31, 2016
Japan Country Outlook Faltering economic reform and recovery hamper credit growth Mar 31, 2016
Korea, South Country Outlook Despite expectations of more economic stability, sector faces squeeze as interest income declines Mar 31, 2016
Malaysia Country Outlook Sector comes under pressure as economic conditions deteriorate Mar 31, 2016
New Zealand Country Outlook Outlook for sector expected to remain positive Mar 31, 2016
Pakistan Country Outlook Decreased government spending and lower margins expected to put pressure on profitability Mar 31, 2016
Singapore Country Outlook Sector to remain healthy amid concerns over asset quality and profitability Mar 31, 2016
Sri Lanka Country Outlook Sector to maintain positive loan and profit growth amid improvements in asset quality Mar 31, 2016
Taiwan Country Outlook Overcrowded sector shackled by lack of loan demand due to slower economic growth Mar 31, 2016
Thailand Country Outlook Increased credit provisions expected to depress profitability Mar 31, 2016
The Philippines Country Outlook Sector is expected to remain resilient amid slowdown in regional economies Mar 31, 2016
Vietnam Country Outlook Despite regulatory reforms, sector still susceptible to deteriorating credit and asset quality Mar 31, 2016

Market Topic Content Date of publication Format
Australia Country Outlook Can the industry withstand the current combination of low interest rates, strong housing price growth and higher household indebtedness? Feb 16, 2015
Bangladesh Country Outlook Recent trends in the banking sector show weak supervision of the banking system and poor portfolio management. Feb 16, 2015
Brunei Country Outlook Brunei is enhancing its financial infrastructure, increasing liquidity and modernising its payment and settlement system. Feb 16, 2015
China Country Outlook Economic restructuring and industrial optimisation will bring demand for new financial products and services. Feb 16, 2015
Hong Kong Country Outlook Hong Kong’s banking sector looks increasingly intertwined with China’s and is expected to face another challenging year in 2015. Feb 16, 2015
India Country Outlook Reforms are needed to ensure more open competition and mitigate the level of bad debts to state-owned enterprises. Feb 16, 2015
Indonesia Country Outlook Banks achieved a safe level of risk despite economic downswing, political uncertainty and a tight macroeconomic policy stance. Feb 16, 2015
Japan Country Outlook Growing asset quality, falling credit risk and good capital adequacy ratios bode well for Japanese banks. Feb 16, 2015
Korea, South Country Outlook Recent economic indicators point to the country being at risk of falling into deflation with Q4 2014 growth worse than forecast. Feb 16, 2015
Malaysia Country Outlook The overall riskiness of banks’ portfolios is manageable, with the industry’s high quality capital contributing to steady growth in assets. Feb 16, 2015
Pakistan Country Outlook The banking sector strengthened, with banks achieving good profits, sound asset quality and liquidity surpluses. Feb 16, 2015
Singapore Country Outlook The recent surge in household indebtedness and introduction of new liquidity regulation will moderate banking industry growth. Feb 16, 2015
Sri Lanka Country Outlook Sri Lanka’s regulatory framework has enabled the banking sector to recover and stabilise. Feb 16, 2015
Taiwan Country Outlook Strong competition and depressed net interest margins drive Taiwan’s banks to expand into the region. Feb 16, 2015
Thailand Country Outlook After a year of political unrest and economic stagnation, Thai banks are gearing up for recovery in 2015. Feb 16, 2015
The Philippines Country Outlook The Philippine banking outlook remains positive despite economic setbacks and effects of natural calamities. Feb 16, 2015
Vietnam Country Outlook Steady recovery seen in economic growth due to improving external accounts, falling inflation and a stable exchange market. Feb 16, 2015

Market Topic Content Date of publication Format
Australia Country Outlook Banks focus on APRA’s forthcoming liquidity reforms to manoeuvre key elements of Basel III liquidity framework amid market pressure Mar 31, 2014
Bangladesh Country Outlook High NPLs, much of which deemed unrecoverable, lead to shortfall of capital Mar 31, 2014
Brunei Country Outlook Though overall performance strong, banks need to be agile in structuring products in changing environment Mar 31, 2014
China Country Outlook Government to allow market forces to drive efficiency while restructuring economy through regulation Mar 31, 2014
Hong Kong Country Outlook Banks face rise in interest rates, capital outflows and higher credit risks in China Mar 31, 2014
India Country Outlook RBI promises to revitalise banking sector, improve financial inclusion and increase competitiveness Mar 31, 2014
Indonesia Country Outlook Strict sanctioning from BI expected to keep asset quality and capital adequacy intact amid pressure from USD Mar 31, 2014
Japan Country Outlook Positive spill-over from Abenomics yet to translate into profits for Japanese banks Mar 31, 2014
Korea, South Country Outlook Though well capitalised with low NPLs, banks face declining home lending growth and lack of investment from SMEs Mar 31, 2014
Malaysia Country Outlook As household income struggles to match rising debt levels, banks find it a challenge to achieve higher earnings growth Mar 31, 2014
Pakistan Country Outlook High NPLs, inflation and rising fiscal deficit require decisive action by SBP to enable rebound in banking sector Mar 31, 2014
Singapore Country Outlook Persistent low interest rates, loan growth suppression and increased competition drive down profits Mar 31, 2014
Sri Lanka Country Outlook Sri Lankan banks diversify and consolidate to build stronger, more coherent financial sector Mar 31, 2014
Taiwan Country Outlook SMEs’ 85% contribution to GDP may increase if trade with China and ASEAN enables offshore expansion Mar 31, 2014
Thailand Country Outlook BoT moves to curb inflation, liberalise domestic financial services industry and spur regulatory reform Mar 31, 2014
The Philippines Country Outlook Banks expected to remain healthy while preparing for ASEAN integration and Basel III compliance Mar 31, 2014
Vietnam Country Outlook Low transparency, high cross-bank ownership, lax accounting standards and rising bad debt impede long-term prospects Mar 31, 2014

Market Topic Content Date of publication Format
China Country Outlook Slowing activity and stubbornly high inflation show up weaknesses in China’s economy while anticipated reform to the current financial system together with global economy uncertainty create challenges for its stability oriented economy and banking sector. Apr 12, 2012
Thailand Country Outlook Devastated by the floods in Q3 2011, the Thai economy has bounced back on strong 9.4%YoY reconstruction loans growth, 12%YoY higher fee income and lower tax rates. Apr 25, 2012

Market Topic Content Date of publication Format
Australia Country Outlook With the increasing global macroeconomic volatility and expected slowdown in capital inflows, banks are shifting towards deposits as a safer and more sustainable form of funding. Apr 12, 2012
Hong Kong Country Outlook Banking sector will see more opportunities in the area of Rmb trade settlement, the main driver for profit in 2012, but expect a decline in growth momentum due to the weakness in the U.S. economy and the European debt crisis. Apr 06, 2012
Japan Country Outlook Although Japan managed to recover strongly after of the natural disasters in March 2011, high domestic political risks and competition coupled with external volatility of the global economy will hinder the nation’s and its banking sector’s recovery. Dec 12, 2011
Malaysia Country Outlook Domestic consumer and credit demand sustains performances of Malaysian banks against economic downturn, while regulatory initiatives are put in place to ensure sustainability of banking sector Apr 06, 2012
Singapore Country Outlook Stagnating domestic demand coupled with inability to expand regionally are expected to dent Singapore banks’ profitability in the near future Dec 07, 2011
South Korea Country Outlook With an export orientated economy, South Korea will see a huge decrease in loan growth in tandem with the declining export demand, especially from US and EU. Dec 28, 2011
Taiwan Country Outlook Taiwanese banks are looking forward to a better cross-strait relationship with China and increasing demand for cross-border financial services in emerging markets Jan 09, 2012
Thailand Country Outlook With robust fundamentals in place, Thai banks are set to recover along with the country’s economy from the massive damage inflicted by the monsoon flooding Apr 06, 2012

Market Topic Content Date of publication Format
Bangladesh Country Outlook State-owned commercial banks prepare to commercialise as the country readies itself for the introduction of Basel II. Dec 01, 2010
Brunei Country Outlook The sleepy Bruneian market, staring down an era of stagnancy, has not broken free from oil. Dec 01, 2010
China Country Outlook The lending boom that is keeping the domestic economy afloat is unlikely to slow considerably in the near-term - financials (non interest income) Dec 01, 2010
Hong Kong Country Outlook Hong Kong banks have resisted the shaking out that is staring them in the face - financials (deposit growth) Dec 01, 2010
India Country Outlook After years of falling market-shares the crisis prompts consumers to seek safety in state owned banks - financials (credit to deposit ratio) Dec 01, 2010
Indonesia Country Outlook While interest rates are coming down, compressing the country’s broad margins slightly, fundamentals are strong - financials (loans, NPL ratio) Dec 01, 2010
Japan Country Outlook A busy shaking out in 2009 has changed the playing field significantly, especially for the largest banking group in Asia - financials (credit cost, net income) Dec 01, 2010
Malaysia Country Outlook Banks remain strong and profitable, although Maybank and the foreign banks have been hit - financials (loans, NPL ratio) Dec 01, 2010
Pakistan Country Outlook Pakistan’s banks, having made a career of resilience in their home markets, are now on the defensive Dec 01, 2010
Philippines Country Outlook Despite major economic setbacks in 2009, the financial services industry is rich in initiatives Dec 01, 2010
Singapore Country Outlook Singapore banks will need to come up with solutions to turn their ample capital into top-line growth - financials (loans, NPL ratio) Dec 01, 2010
South Korea Country Outlook Against their natures, Korean banks are looking out more than they are looking in - financials (deposits, loans, interest rate) Dec 01, 2010
Sri Lanka Country Outlook Banks may lose out on opportunities if they cannot solve deep fundamental problems on cost and management - financials (inflation) Dec 01, 2010
Taiwan Country Outlook Squeezed by business conditions on one side, Taiwan’s banks stand to benefit from a warming of relations with China - financials (stock market capitalization, lending interest rate) Dec 01, 2010
Thailand Country Outlook Thai banks manoeuvre through the crisis by growing fee income, with benefits from a government stimulus package coming - financials (net profit, profit growth) Dec 01, 2010
Vietnam Country Outlook A surge in lending, especially to the SME sector, in 2009 can only lead to a flood of capital-raising in 2010 Dec 01, 2010

Market Topic Content Date of publication Format
Australia Country Outlook Australian banks are likely to see bad loans surge in 2009, having previously kept them to a minimum Dec 01, 2009
Bangladesh Country Outlook Banks in Bangladesh will need to increase their capital, as the country steps up its fi nancial sector reforms Dec 01, 2009
Brunei Country Outlook Brunei still needs to implement new banking regulations if it is to develop as a fi nancial centre Dec 01, 2009
China Country Outlook Global economic downturn will prompt Chinese banks to shift their business focuses Dec 01, 2009
Hong Kong Country Outlook A sense of unease continues to hang over Hong Kong’s banking industry despite solid underlying fundamentals Dec 01, 2009
India Country Outlook Interest rate cuts may not be enough to sustain domestic demand, as a sharp downturn is predicted Dec 01, 2009
Indonesia Country Outlook Ebbing liquidity, credit growth, and profi ts will test the banking sector’s post-1997 mettle Dec 01, 2009
Japan Country Outlook Large bad loan clean-ups and weak domestic demand will hurt Japanese banks Dec 01, 2009
Malaysia Country Outlook After a period of new regional expansion, Malaysian banks are looking to Islamic fi nancing in search of opportunity Dec 01, 2009
Pakistan Country Outlook Political and economic woes and higher lending rates will put pressure on Pakistani banks’ asset quality Dec 01, 2009
Philippines Country Outlook Economic and fi nancial indicators are again heading south, but bank capital reserves and asset quality remain buoyant so far Dec 01, 2009
Singapore Country Outlook With the real economy sliding into recession, Singapore banks need to readjust for a more sustainable future Dec 01, 2009
South Korea Country Outlook Authorities are busy with crisis management fi refi ghting, but sticking to market liberalisation plans Dec 01, 2009
Sri Lanka Country Outlook Continued confl ict and rocketing infl ation make Sri Lanka one of the world’s most vulnerable economies Dec 01, 2009
Taiwan Country Outlook Taiwan’s banks will hope closer relations with the mainland can compensate for slower domestic growth Dec 01, 2009
Thailand Country Outlook On top of global fi nancial crisis fallout, Thai banks will also have to deal with domestic political instability once again Dec 01, 2009
Vietnam Country Outlook After fi ghting high infl ation and overheating, monetary authorities must now grapple with a sudden economic downturn Dec 01, 2009


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